Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened at $11,536.5/mt overnight, initially moving sideways, touched a high of $11,550.5/mt, then fell straight to a low of $11,446/mt, and finally closed at $11,470/mt, down 1.76%, with trading volume at 23,000 lots and open interest at 342,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2601 opened at 91,400 yuan/mt overnight, touched a high of 91,610 yuan/mt early in the session, then declined to a low of 90,710 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 91,020 yuan/mt, down 1.13%, with trading volume at 73,000 lots and open interest at 201,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On December 9, Gold Royalty announced the acquisition of BHP's copper-gold mine project in Brazil for $70 million. This transaction involves mining assets BHP obtained from acquiring Oz Minerals and brings new resource reserves and growth opportunities to Gold Royalty. BHP retains a net smelter return (NSR) royalty, providing potential returns from future mining. This acquisition marks Gold Royalty's expansion in the South American market and is expected to strengthen its strategic position in the copper-gold mining market.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On December 9, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month contract 2512 were 10-180 yuan/mt, with an average of 95 yuan/mt, down 35 from the previous trading day; the SMM #1 copper cathode price was 91,780-92,650 yuan/mt. SHFE copper briefly rose to a high of 92,660 yuan/mt in the morning before starting to fall, touching a low of 91,770 yuan/mt in the morning. The intermonth price spread was contango 80-20 yuan/mt, and the import loss for SHFE copper front-month contract was around 1,200 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, copper prices remain above 90,000 yuan/mt, but market procurement is hindered, and spot premiums against SHFE copper are expected to potentially decline further.
(2) Guangdong: On December 9, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month contract were 30-100 yuan/mt, with an average of 65 yuan/mt, up 5 from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was at a discount of 60-20 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 40 yuan/mt, up 10 from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 92,480 yuan/mt, up 190 from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 92,375 yuan/mt, up 195 from the previous trading day. Overall, with copper prices retreating from highs, downstream procurement desire slightly increased, suppliers held prices firm, and overall trading was slightly better than the previous day.
(3) Imported copper: On December 9, warrant prices were $34-46/mt, QP December, average unchanged from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $40-52/mt, QP December, average unchanged from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $0-14/mt, QP December, average unchanged from the previous trading day, with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in early to mid-December.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on December 9, the futures closing price was 92,140 yuan/mt, down 340 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 95 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials fell 600 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 82,100-82,300 yuan/mt, down 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,321 yuan/mt, up 267 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,280 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, misjudging the plunge in copper prices, secondary copper raw material traders continuously lowered purchase prices, while secondary copper rod enterprises chose to suspend quotations and purchases, switching to a wait-and-see approach until copper prices stabilize before resuming procurement.
(5) Inventory: On December 8, LME copper cathode inventories increased by 1,125 mt to 165,675 mt; on December 9, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 425 mt to 29,531 mt.
Prices: On the macro front, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts diverged; a candidate for the next US Fed chair indicated there is still ample room for rate cuts, and the market generally awaited the US Fed interest rate decision on the 11th at dawn. On the fundamentals side, supply side, the arrival of imported goods remained tight; demand side, high copper prices continued to suppress downstream consumption. Overall, copper prices were expected to have limited upside today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
